And you thought we had this Y2K problem licked, didn't you?
First, let me give you fair warning. This is the obligatory "gee, what problems we'll face because of the Year 2000, from crashing airplanes to spoiled food to no electricity, and you'd better get ready" column." Hopefully, as with most outings in this space, we won't be going over quite the same ground you might have already tread in Time and USA Today. Rather, our sources are much deeper moles in the system, those that have the real skinny on what promises to be the greatest challenge to the world since... well... since 0000, when the big decision was whether or not to rape AND pillage.
To be sure, the dawning of the next century offers tantalizing opportunities for every doom and gloom monger on the planet. Sure, they'll be lots of minor inconveniences, such as those farsighted individuals who saved a few bucks and bought headstones with "19 - -" chiseled in place. They are now racing the clock with a real devil's choice: to die before year end and use it as is, or to live on and have to pony up the fifty bucks or so it'll take a stone mason to blast it off and re-etch "20 - -" on the face. This should separate the real misers from the pack.
But if you're the kind of person who is paranoid that you're not paranoid enough, then this occasion has your name written all over it. You can take it as far as you want: stockpile food, as the supply chain will be corrupted; stockpile cash, as the banks will go under; stockpile batteries, as the electricity will fail. If you're really concerned, check out those appliances that Sanyo is advertising as "Y2K" compliant. And we're not talking just about VCR's or camcorders... that is, devices that have built in timers and calendars. No, the company has slapped a certified label on its toasters, bread slicers and vacuum cleaners. I guess that means that you can make an English Muffin at the stroke of midnight on December 31, 1999, and be assured that it won't blow up in your face.
In fact, while we were all looking the other way, the first threshold of numerological meltdown was crossed and wrestled screaming to the ground. When the clock struck midnight on the first day of 1999, there was some concern that the "99" might trigger some programs that used that indicator to mean a given date was special. Alas, it didn't seem to cause a problem, as there was no Federal holiday declared on February 3.
But if you're the type who loves a good disaster movie, your have several more opportunities to root for the hero who saves the world from computer Armageddon. Seeing as how the financial markets didn't meltdown when the Dow hit 10,000, your next chance to cheer or jeer will be on August 22 of this year. On that date, GPS satellites in orbit will roll over their own internal clock. For some reason obvious to only the Lord and three engineers at Rockwell, the system was designed based on an increment of 1,024 weeks. That means that to those birds first placed in orbit on January 5, 1980, it's time to party like it's 1999. The result is that you could be using your handy new automobile mapping system in Wichita at midnight on August 23, and suddenly find out that you're not in Kansas anymore.
Then there's September 9, 1999, or in shorthand, 9/9/99. That string of digits could trigger numerous programs to think it's the end of their computing cycle, and shut down or restart. Of course, for those of you standing on your head, it's probably a great day to call a meeting of your coven.
However, this will probably amount to only a small bump in the road, and in fact, will be good training for the big kahunna on New Year's Day. For even if 85% of all existing applications have been debugged, that still means that 1.7 million programs could fail while the crowd in Times Square is still raising a ruckus. And we're not talking just about the biggies, like the utilities or the air traffic control system. Rumor has it that experts have concluded that all of your saved games of Quake are at risk, and that the New York Times crossword could get incredibly hard on a Monday. In the interest of not creating a public panic, however, they're keeping this stuff quiet.
Mind you, it's not as if we'll be out of the woods come January 2. On September 8, 2001, those computers that use the Unix operating system are liable to get confused as their internal clock ticks to 999,999,999 seconds since the system was launched on January 1, 1980. Those same systems are at risk on January 19, 2038, when the number of seconds counted exceeds the 32 bit data handling capacity of current computers. And on January 1, 10000, all those Y2K fixes that changed the date field to 4 places will be outgunned once again. Expect problems such as your starship not being able to navigate correctly, your personal biosphere not able to conduct a proper oxygen bleed, and 60 Minutes forced to rerun old Andy Rooney segments.
Keep in mind that the calendar is not the only thing that will make news in 2000. It's a presidential election year and a leap year. The Olympics take place in Australia. The euro will begin to circulate. And perhaps most frightening all, all of those time capsules stuffed with artifacts from the 50's, 60's and 70's will be unearthed. That's right... pictures of you and your friends in the most awful outfits you can imagine will be circulating for all to see. And you thought that photo of you in stacked heels, hip hugging flared green pants and flowered polyester shirt was safely lost to history.
Then again, it all might pass with a whimper. As Reed Hundt, the former chairman of the FCC noted, "January 1, 2000 will be a Saturday. So if the world comes to an end for a couple of days, it'll be OK. We've all had weekends like that."
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Marc Wollin of Bedford is most pleased that 2000 is The Year of the Dragon. For the next millennium or so, his column will continue to appear weekly in The Record Review.
