Trends come in two flavors. There are those that gather the data from a specific time period, letting us know the direction we've been heading. It can be as consequential as inflation or as pointless as a Tik Tok dance move. Either way the report is based on past behaviors, and helps to illuminate where we are in any given area. Its most common summation is a line graph that is jagged and heading up or down, showing that we are doing whatever "it" is more or less often, that "it" is gaining or losing ground. Or as the title of a long-ago collection of Doonesbury cartoons put it, "We're eating more beets!"
The other type is the trend as dictated by influencers or style makers. It is less a look back than a look forward, more of a prediction than report. Those that identify these trends aim to drive the market rather than summarize it. It might be the height of heels, or the expected growth of drive-thru restaurants. These are as much projections as wishful thinking, hoping to be in a position many months hence when they can say "See? I told you so!"
While the first group is objective and empirical, the second is subjective and speculative. And that means the second can't be wrong at the outset, only in hindsight. Different people look at the same base and project different outcomes, not all of which will prove correct. But at the beginning? Well, one guess is as good as another.
Take the expected trends in color. Each year the seers of shades name the tones that they feel will be the dominant ones over the next 12 months. You might see the pick and their associated palettes in clothing, in home furnishings, in accessories. And while they may be based on focus groups and research, there's also a lot of emotional guesswork, based on the tenor of the times and the gestalt in which we are in.
So in that light it's probably not surprising that three different arbiters came to roughly the same place. Sherwin Williams, Benjamin Moore and Behr are three of the major paint manufacturers. Their very business is color. In cans and bottles they provide the physical stuff to make that tone come to life. Still, it can hardly be considered collusion when once they processed all that we have been through of late that they each came to the same conclusion: that people want something calming and peaceful, in this case a tranquil shade of green.
Of course being competitors they each have their own take to a very similar set of tones. Benjamin Moore calls theirs October Mist 1495, which they describe as a "gently shaded sage" which "evokes the silver-green stem of a flower." Meanwhile Sherwin Williams goes a touch darker with Evergreen Fog SW 9130, "a versatile and calming hue, a chameleon color of gorgeous green-meets-gray, with just a bit of blue." And Behr went the other way, brightening the base up a bit with Breezeway, "a relaxed and uplifting sea glass green expressing peace and tranquility for forward movement."
Put them side by side an there is no doubt they descend from a common root. For a brief moment you might think there is unanimity in the world, that we do all see things similarly, that indeed things are not black or white but perhaps shades of well, green. But don't get too comfortable, because here comes Pantone.
What a dictionary is the language, Pantone is to color. It provides the common reference point and universal system of defining and replicating colors. Say an apple is "red" and there are a thousand, no, a million possibilities. Say an apple is Pantone P 49-8 C and there is but one Jonathan that looks that way. And so when they speak, it carries a bit more weight in the discussion.
And the Pantone 2022 color to be watched? Another moss tone it's not. It's a brand new swatch designated as 17-3938 Very Peri. It's a light purple, or as described by the Executive Director of the Pantone Color Institute Leatrice Eisman, it "Encompasses the qualities of the blues, yet at the same time possessing a violet-red undertone." Going further, Eisman says "Very Peri displays a spritely, joyous attitude and dynamic presence that encourages courageous creativity and imaginative expression." That's a lot of baggage to hang on a purple chip, but she obviously thinks it's up to the challenge,
So the fight is joined. Will it be the earth tone gang of October Mist, Evergreen Fog and Breezeway, or the dynamic newcomer of Very Peri? Let's meet back here in a year's time, and check your closets, walls and sweaters to see who is the winner, and who is merely, well, green with envy.
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Marc Wollin of Bedford doesn't have a favorite color. His column appears regularly in The Record-Review, The Scarsdale Inquirer and online at http://www.glancingaskance.blogspot.com/, as well as via Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.
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