We're short on masks. We're short on ventilators. We don't have enough gloves or respirators or intensive care beds. There is concern about running out of the special kinds of swabs and reagents for culturing, not to mention the very tests themselves. Then once they figure out a vaccine, there is acknowledgement that it will be a serious issue as to how to make enough doses, let alone the syringes and vials it will take to inoculate the entire world. And that's just on the health front. Social justice, tolerance, equal rights, empathy, patience, understanding, reasoned discourse – the list of things in short supply goes on and on. About the only thing we seem to have in abundance is caution. Sometimes.
Well, you can add one more thing that to the list of shortages that threatens our world. There is a great deal of discussion about mail-in ballots: whether it is safe, whether it is fair, whether it should encouraged or discouraged. While not always falling along neat political lines, the arguments from right and left are as impassioned as any other political discourse. But regardless of which side wins out in any given locality, there is a limiting factor which, while it shouldn't influence the outcome of the debate per se, will have an impact. It creates the same roadblock on using the Post Office as a ballot box as not having enough cotton covered sticks to ram up your nasal cavity has on testing: there aren't enough envelopes in the sea.
Like paper clips, pencils and note pads, envelopes are one of those basic office supplies that we take for granted. But just as paper usage has decreased with a shift to electronic communications, so too have envelopes become scarcer. If we print less, we also send less. And that means less heavier stock for carrying our missives. While your electronic inbox may be groaning under all the junk mail you get, your physical mailbox is likely seeing less and less traffic of any kind. And so in line with the most basic laws of economics, if there is less demand eventually there is less supply.
Two other factors come into play. Mail in voting requires not just one envelope, but four. Number one contains the legal notice that is sent out informing voters to be aware that something is on their way. Number two holds the ballot and its accompanying conveyors. Number three is the binder into which you seal your official tally, while number four is the special oversized envelope need to mail the whole package back to the county clerk.
On top of that compounding factor is the sheer number of voters that are moving in that direction. While the percentage of absentee and vote by mail ballots has roughly doubled over the past 10 years or so, the move to allow more people to vote that way this year due to the pandemic has rocket fueled the totals. In 2016, vote by mail accounted for just about 24% of the total votes cast. While it's not a straight line, absentee ballots requests in Michigan in its most recent election were up 97% over 2016. That's a whole lot more licking.
Hence the shortage. More needed per individual use case, and less time to ramp up manufacture to meet the demand. It's not as if the supply couldn't be increased if the need scaled up in a gradual manner. But the sudden explosion just overwhelms the suppliers. It's as if suddenly everyone switched from plain to only wanting peanut M&M's, AND not the little bags but the big family size ones suitable for sharing overnight. There just wouldn't be enough, and we'd all be jonesing for a fix. Or at least I would.
If our current situation has taught us anything it's that you can't take a supply of anything for granted. Not toilet paper. Not hand sanitizer. Not pork chops, not hair trimmers, not PPE. And now you can add envelopes to the list. It would seem that if it's critical to your world, you would do good to lay in an extra supply of whatever it is. For some it will be socks, for others hair color. As for me, I'm going to set aside a spot in our basement for the really important stuff. How much does a year's supply of Reese's take up?
-END
Marc Wollin of Bedford has a pretty good stock of peanut butter. His column appears regularly in The Record-Review, The Scarsdale Inquirer and online at http://www.glancingaskance.blogspot.com/, as well as via Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.
Well, you can add one more thing that to the list of shortages that threatens our world. There is a great deal of discussion about mail-in ballots: whether it is safe, whether it is fair, whether it should encouraged or discouraged. While not always falling along neat political lines, the arguments from right and left are as impassioned as any other political discourse. But regardless of which side wins out in any given locality, there is a limiting factor which, while it shouldn't influence the outcome of the debate per se, will have an impact. It creates the same roadblock on using the Post Office as a ballot box as not having enough cotton covered sticks to ram up your nasal cavity has on testing: there aren't enough envelopes in the sea.
Like paper clips, pencils and note pads, envelopes are one of those basic office supplies that we take for granted. But just as paper usage has decreased with a shift to electronic communications, so too have envelopes become scarcer. If we print less, we also send less. And that means less heavier stock for carrying our missives. While your electronic inbox may be groaning under all the junk mail you get, your physical mailbox is likely seeing less and less traffic of any kind. And so in line with the most basic laws of economics, if there is less demand eventually there is less supply.
Two other factors come into play. Mail in voting requires not just one envelope, but four. Number one contains the legal notice that is sent out informing voters to be aware that something is on their way. Number two holds the ballot and its accompanying conveyors. Number three is the binder into which you seal your official tally, while number four is the special oversized envelope need to mail the whole package back to the county clerk.
On top of that compounding factor is the sheer number of voters that are moving in that direction. While the percentage of absentee and vote by mail ballots has roughly doubled over the past 10 years or so, the move to allow more people to vote that way this year due to the pandemic has rocket fueled the totals. In 2016, vote by mail accounted for just about 24% of the total votes cast. While it's not a straight line, absentee ballots requests in Michigan in its most recent election were up 97% over 2016. That's a whole lot more licking.
Hence the shortage. More needed per individual use case, and less time to ramp up manufacture to meet the demand. It's not as if the supply couldn't be increased if the need scaled up in a gradual manner. But the sudden explosion just overwhelms the suppliers. It's as if suddenly everyone switched from plain to only wanting peanut M&M's, AND not the little bags but the big family size ones suitable for sharing overnight. There just wouldn't be enough, and we'd all be jonesing for a fix. Or at least I would.
If our current situation has taught us anything it's that you can't take a supply of anything for granted. Not toilet paper. Not hand sanitizer. Not pork chops, not hair trimmers, not PPE. And now you can add envelopes to the list. It would seem that if it's critical to your world, you would do good to lay in an extra supply of whatever it is. For some it will be socks, for others hair color. As for me, I'm going to set aside a spot in our basement for the really important stuff. How much does a year's supply of Reese's take up?
-END
Marc Wollin of Bedford has a pretty good stock of peanut butter. His column appears regularly in The Record-Review, The Scarsdale Inquirer and online at http://www.glancingaskance.blogspot.com/, as well as via Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.
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